Projects & Management

Can Google Grow Up?

Google is one of the best things to happen to the Net. So will its IPO, expected this spring, be a must-buy? A look inside reveals a talented company facing trouble. Fortune's Dec 8th issue has the great article Can Google Grow Up? about it…

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So is Google, as they used to say about Amazon, toast?

Doubtful. But the fight to stay at the top will be brutal?a sobering thought for those waiting to buy in. After an IPO, Google will have mounds of cash, but money alone won't hold off the likes of Microsoft. It's easy to picture Microsoft using its Windows monopoly to lasso people into using its search?even if its search is slightly clunkier than Google's. That scenario won't happen, says Brin. He thinks the company with the superior technology will triumph: "If they force users to use MSN Search and it's inferior, it will cause lots of problems for them." Instead of locking in users, Google will go on creating services that keep them coming back voluntarily. He points to Google News, where users can sign up to be e-mailed whenever a story appears that contains a word or phrase they're interested in. "I wouldn't pursue anything?what's the buzzword? sticky??for the sake of having something sticky. Users will put up with it for a while, but at the first opportunity they'll change. So I'm not a big fan of handcuffing," he says.

It's typical Google idealism. But then, the founders have proved that the Google culture can create opportunities where conventional wisdom (and experience) sees none. Soon, though, whatever they do will have to be done with shareholders in mind?a prospect that makes seat-of-the-pants governance impossible. Of all the searches done on Google, one that can't yet be answered is whether this company is ready for prime time.

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